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ELECTRICAL · Q1 2026 · 2.5×–4.5× SDE band held quarter-over-quarter (n=95, BizBuySell trailing-12-month closed deals)ELECTRICAL · COMEX copper $5.44/lb late March 2026 · 83.7% cumulative inflation since Feb 2020 baselineELECTRICAL · Section 232 copper tariff effective Apr 2, 2026 · Fixed-price 2023–2024 contract margin compression ~12%ELECTRICAL · NEC 2026 arc-flash labeling (Article 110.16) mandatory on non-residential service & feeder equipmentELECTRICAL · 64% of commercial-weighted deals carried arc-flash labeling gaps on installed base · Forward retrofit liabilityELECTRICAL · IBEW–NECA inside agreements 2024–2028 · 3–5%/yr wage escalator locked through 2028ELECTRICAL · Master license depth · 2+ W-2 masters correlates with 3.5×–4.5× upper-band placementELECTRICAL · Industry size $237.6B (Arizton 2024) · 2.4% CAGR 2024–2029ELECTRICAL · Data center + EV charging pipeline inflation cited in 28% of deal presentations · Forward pipeline ≠ trailing SDEELECTRICAL · BLS 47-2111 median wage $61,590 (May 2024) · Journeyman IBEW $40–$48/hr in 2026JAPAN · 電気工事士法 national certification · 第一種 (full scope) and 第二種 (200V residential) portable across prefecturesMETHODOLOGY · Acquidex v1.0 · Sample window 2025-05 → 2026-04 · Trailing 12 months · n=95 SMB transactionsELECTRICAL · Q1 2026 · 2.5×–4.5× SDE band held quarter-over-quarter (n=95, BizBuySell trailing-12-month closed deals)ELECTRICAL · COMEX copper $5.44/lb late March 2026 · 83.7% cumulative inflation since Feb 2020 baselineELECTRICAL · Section 232 copper tariff effective Apr 2, 2026 · Fixed-price 2023–2024 contract margin compression ~12%ELECTRICAL · NEC 2026 arc-flash labeling (Article 110.16) mandatory on non-residential service & feeder equipmentELECTRICAL · 64% of commercial-weighted deals carried arc-flash labeling gaps on installed base · Forward retrofit liabilityELECTRICAL · IBEW–NECA inside agreements 2024–2028 · 3–5%/yr wage escalator locked through 2028ELECTRICAL · Master license depth · 2+ W-2 masters correlates with 3.5×–4.5× upper-band placementELECTRICAL · Industry size $237.6B (Arizton 2024) · 2.4% CAGR 2024–2029ELECTRICAL · Data center + EV charging pipeline inflation cited in 28% of deal presentations · Forward pipeline ≠ trailing SDEELECTRICAL · BLS 47-2111 median wage $61,590 (May 2024) · Journeyman IBEW $40–$48/hr in 2026JAPAN · 電気工事士法 national certification · 第一種 (full scope) and 第二種 (200V residential) portable across prefecturesMETHODOLOGY · Acquidex v1.0 · Sample window 2025-05 → 2026-04 · Trailing 12 months · n=95 SMB transactions
Scored Listing·Electrical·Updated 2026-05-02
Lower bandComposite

Project-focused electrical contractor, single owner-held license, large project distorting SDE

§ 01 · Observed

What was documented in diligence.

Revenue breakdown: 91% project work, 9% service calls. No maintenance contracts. The single $620,000 project represented 41% of trailing 12-month revenue; excluding it reduces revenue to prior-year levels. Owner performs all permit pulls and inspections personally. No other master license on staff or under employment. Percentage-completion reconciliation showed $68,000 of P&L revenue not yet collected in cash at LOI date. Owner confirmed zero backlog after project completion.

§ 02 · Outcome

What happened.

Buyer submitted LOI at 3.2× trailing SDE. After project normalization and owner-labor add-back, adjusted SDE dropped 61%. Deal terminated — repriced multiple on adjusted SDE exceeded 8×, outside any fundable structure.

§ 03 · Structural Pattern

How this deal fits the four-pillar framework.

Lower-band conditions on all four pillars: single large project distorting SDE, single owner-held license with no continuity path, no recurring revenue base, and owner performing all licensed work. Multiple paid was calculated on an inflated trailing period that does not represent the ongoing business.

This is an anonymized composite drawn from observable structural patterns in the sample window. It is not a specific deal. The structural pattern, band placement, and outcome reflect commonly observed combinations; a future consented case study will replace this entry.

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Methodology · Acquidex v1.0, §3.4 (Earnings Quality), §3.3 (Transferability), §5.1 (Add-Back Stripping per SBA SOP 50 10 8). Methodology paper forthcoming Q3 2026.

Sources · BizBuySell closed-deal data, IBBA Market Pulse Q3–4 2025 and Q1 2026, Pratt's Stats SMB transaction database, Acquidex direct deal observations.

Author · Avery Hastings, CPA. Tokyo-based; SMB and lower-middle-market acquisitions in the US and Japan.

Project-focused electrical contractor, single owner-held license, large project distorting SDE — Electrical Deal Teardown | Acquidex | Acquidex