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HVAC · Q1 2026 · 2.8×–5.0× SDE band held quarter-over-quarter (n=123, BizBuySell/Sundance)HVAC · IRA 25C/25D credits terminated Dec 31 2025 (P.L. 119-21) · Pull-forward normalization 12–22% on 2024–2025 trailing periodsHVAC · 1099 Qualifier arrangements appeared in 38% of Q2 deals · SBA fall-through driver in 62% of failed underwritesHVAC · AIM Act R-410A → A2L transition · Stranded inventory haircut typical in 31% of deals with field-van stockHVAC · Comfort Advisor function excluded from owner add-backs in 45% of deals · $65K–$110K replacement cost typicalHVAC · Industry size $135B (IBISWorld 2025) · 4.5% CAGR 2020–2025 · ~87% of installed base sub-$10M contractorHVAC · Master-license depth · 2+ W-2 masters correlates with 4.2×–5.0× upper-band placementHVAC · Comfort Club retention 78–92% across sample · Above 85% supports top-third placementJAPAN · METI/MOE 2018–2022 surveys · >60% of fluorocarbon refrigerants left in disposed AC equipmentJAPAN · ~15K active 冷凍機械責任者 (Refrigerating Machine Engineer) certifications nationwide (JIRFE 2024)JAPAN · Aggregate regulatory compliance cost ¥30–50M on a ¥500M revenue HVAC contractor (6–10% of revenue)METHODOLOGY · Acquidex v1.0 · Sample window 2025-05 → 2026-04 · Trailing 12 months · n=123 SMB transactionsHVAC · Q1 2026 · 2.8×–5.0× SDE band held quarter-over-quarter (n=123, BizBuySell/Sundance)HVAC · IRA 25C/25D credits terminated Dec 31 2025 (P.L. 119-21) · Pull-forward normalization 12–22% on 2024–2025 trailing periodsHVAC · 1099 Qualifier arrangements appeared in 38% of Q2 deals · SBA fall-through driver in 62% of failed underwritesHVAC · AIM Act R-410A → A2L transition · Stranded inventory haircut typical in 31% of deals with field-van stockHVAC · Comfort Advisor function excluded from owner add-backs in 45% of deals · $65K–$110K replacement cost typicalHVAC · Industry size $135B (IBISWorld 2025) · 4.5% CAGR 2020–2025 · ~87% of installed base sub-$10M contractorHVAC · Master-license depth · 2+ W-2 masters correlates with 4.2×–5.0× upper-band placementHVAC · Comfort Club retention 78–92% across sample · Above 85% supports top-third placementJAPAN · METI/MOE 2018–2022 surveys · >60% of fluorocarbon refrigerants left in disposed AC equipmentJAPAN · ~15K active 冷凍機械責任者 (Refrigerating Machine Engineer) certifications nationwide (JIRFE 2024)JAPAN · Aggregate regulatory compliance cost ¥30–50M on a ¥500M revenue HVAC contractor (6–10% of revenue)METHODOLOGY · Acquidex v1.0 · Sample window 2025-05 → 2026-04 · Trailing 12 months · n=123 SMB transactions
Scored Listing·HVAC·Updated 2026-04-27
Lower bandComposite

2-tech shop, Southeast market, Qualifier-only license

§ 01 · Observed

What was documented in diligence.

Owner holds the only HVAC master license in the operating jurisdiction. No licensed employee on staff, no Qualifier arrangement in place. Section 608 refrigerant recovery log showed R-410A purchases from distributor with no corresponding disposal log entries for trailing 18 months — approximately 180 lbs unaccounted. Workers comp audit reports showed HVAC payroll classified under NCCI 5183 (Plumbing) for trailing 2 years. Service agreement book: 95 PM-only agreements, no Comfort Club tier. AOR attach rate not tracked.

§ 02 · Outcome

What happened.

SBA lender declined to underwrite. License continuity could not be documented. Section 608 exposure quantified at potential $37,500–$124,426 per violation per day (40 CFR 19.4) — recovery log gaps representing multiple potential violations. Workers comp reclassification reserve estimated at $28K–$45K. Deal passed.

§ 03 · Structural Pattern

How this deal fits the four-pillar framework.

Three concurrent disqualifying conditions: (1) sole owner-held license with no transfer path, (2) Section 608 recovery log audit failure with quantifiable EPA exposure, (3) NCCI class code misclassification with back-premium liability. Any one of these is individually disqualifying at standard SBA underwriting; all three together produce a deal that fails regardless of pricing.

This is an anonymized composite drawn from observable structural patterns in the sample window. It is not a specific deal. The structural pattern, band placement, and outcome reflect commonly observed combinations; a future consented case study will replace this entry.

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2-tech shop, Southeast market, Qualifier-only license — HVAC Deal Teardown | Acquidex | Acquidex