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HVAC · Q1 2026 · 2.8×–5.0× SDE band held quarter-over-quarter (n=123, BizBuySell/Sundance)HVAC · IRA 25C/25D credits terminated Dec 31 2025 (P.L. 119-21) · Pull-forward normalization 12–22% on 2024–2025 trailing periodsHVAC · 1099 Qualifier arrangements appeared in 38% of Q2 deals · SBA fall-through driver in 62% of failed underwritesHVAC · AIM Act R-410A → A2L transition · Stranded inventory haircut typical in 31% of deals with field-van stockHVAC · Comfort Advisor function excluded from owner add-backs in 45% of deals · $65K–$110K replacement cost typicalHVAC · Industry size $135B (IBISWorld 2025) · 4.5% CAGR 2020–2025 · ~87% of installed base sub-$10M contractorHVAC · Master-license depth · 2+ W-2 masters correlates with 4.2×–5.0× upper-band placementHVAC · Comfort Club retention 78–92% across sample · Above 85% supports top-third placementJAPAN · METI/MOE 2018–2022 surveys · >60% of fluorocarbon refrigerants left in disposed AC equipmentJAPAN · ~15K active 冷凍機械責任者 (Refrigerating Machine Engineer) certifications nationwide (JIRFE 2024)JAPAN · Aggregate regulatory compliance cost ¥30–50M on a ¥500M revenue HVAC contractor (6–10% of revenue)METHODOLOGY · Acquidex v1.0 · Sample window 2025-05 → 2026-04 · Trailing 12 months · n=123 SMB transactionsHVAC · Q1 2026 · 2.8×–5.0× SDE band held quarter-over-quarter (n=123, BizBuySell/Sundance)HVAC · IRA 25C/25D credits terminated Dec 31 2025 (P.L. 119-21) · Pull-forward normalization 12–22% on 2024–2025 trailing periodsHVAC · 1099 Qualifier arrangements appeared in 38% of Q2 deals · SBA fall-through driver in 62% of failed underwritesHVAC · AIM Act R-410A → A2L transition · Stranded inventory haircut typical in 31% of deals with field-van stockHVAC · Comfort Advisor function excluded from owner add-backs in 45% of deals · $65K–$110K replacement cost typicalHVAC · Industry size $135B (IBISWorld 2025) · 4.5% CAGR 2020–2025 · ~87% of installed base sub-$10M contractorHVAC · Master-license depth · 2+ W-2 masters correlates with 4.2×–5.0× upper-band placementHVAC · Comfort Club retention 78–92% across sample · Above 85% supports top-third placementJAPAN · METI/MOE 2018–2022 surveys · >60% of fluorocarbon refrigerants left in disposed AC equipmentJAPAN · ~15K active 冷凍機械責任者 (Refrigerating Machine Engineer) certifications nationwide (JIRFE 2024)JAPAN · Aggregate regulatory compliance cost ¥30–50M on a ¥500M revenue HVAC contractor (6–10% of revenue)METHODOLOGY · Acquidex v1.0 · Sample window 2025-05 → 2026-04 · Trailing 12 months · n=123 SMB transactions
Scored Listing·HVAC·Updated 2026-04-14
Mid-bandComposite

3-tech Carrier FAD shop, North Texas suburban market

§ 01 · Observed

What was documented in diligence.

Carrier Factory Authorized Dealer status confirmed. Agreement book 200 Comfort Club at $389/yr (88% retention) and 80 PM-only at $179/yr (62% retention). Master license held by 1099 Qualifier at $1,200/month. AOR attach rate 24% — below the 35% threshold for organic growth. Trailing 24-month changeout revenue included 24 IRA-incentivized heat pump installs vs. 9 in the 2022–2023 baseline. R-410A inventory at approximately 14 months forward demand. Owner performing 12 hrs/wk service repair and 8 hrs/wk Comfort Advisor in-home estimates at 32% close rate.

§ 02 · Outcome

What happened.

Buyer renegotiated from $860K (4.0× broker SDE of $215K) to $470K (4.0× on normalized SDE of $117K). Structural levers: Qualifier consent-to-assignment as closing condition, Carrier FAD territory-rep confirmation pre-LOI, R-410A inventory working capital adjustment. Base-case DSCR 1.52× at repriced level; concurrent stress (FAD revocation + Qualifier exit) produced 0.96× — resolved by license-continuity escrow.

§ 03 · Structural Pattern

How this deal fits the four-pillar framework.

Mid-band placement driven by real Comfort Club retention (88%) offset by 1099 Qualifier fragility, owner-dependent Comfort Advisor function, and confirmed IRA pull-forward. The repricing gap between broker SDE ($215K) and normalized SDE ($117K) — a 45% compression — is the canonical HVAC normalization pattern for 2024–2025 deal vintage.

This is an anonymized composite drawn from observable structural patterns in the sample window. It is not a specific deal. The structural pattern, band placement, and outcome reflect commonly observed combinations; a future consented case study will replace this entry.

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3-tech Carrier FAD shop, North Texas suburban market — HVAC Deal Teardown | Acquidex | Acquidex