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CAR WASH · Q1 2026 · 4.5×–7.0× EBITDA band held quarter-over-quarter (n=82, BizBuySell / industry M&A aggregate)CAR WASH · Mister Car Wash → LGP take-private · $7.00/share at 29% premium (Feb 17 2026 announcement)CAR WASH · Driven Brands divests US Car Wash to Whistle Express for $385M · diversified-acquirer retreatCAR WASH · ZIPS Car Wash emerged from Chapter 11 (Apr 2025) · $279M debt reduction; appeals through 2026CAR WASH · Express tunnel format >50% of NA market share (Mordor Intelligence 2026)CAR WASH · ICA Q1 CAR WASH Pulse — saturation, price sensitivity, slowing membership growthCAR WASH · Industry size $18.7B US (IBISWorld 2026) · 5.4% CAGR 2025–2026CAR WASH · Cohort retention 72%–91% across sample · 30–50% higher promotional-rate churnREGULATORY · EPA Proposed 2026 MSGP · PFAS quarterly monitoring + exceedance investigation requirementREGULATORY · California Title 22 reclaim retrofit deadline Jan 1 2027 · 50% reclaim threshold for existing sitesJAPAN · Cross-border discount ~30–40% · 2.5×–4.0× EBITDA band reflects no unlimited-membership recurring layerMETHODOLOGY · Acquidex v1.0 · Sample window 2025-04 → 2026-03 · Trailing 12 months · n=82 SMB transactionsCAR WASH · Q1 2026 · 4.5×–7.0× EBITDA band held quarter-over-quarter (n=82, BizBuySell / industry M&A aggregate)CAR WASH · Mister Car Wash → LGP take-private · $7.00/share at 29% premium (Feb 17 2026 announcement)CAR WASH · Driven Brands divests US Car Wash to Whistle Express for $385M · diversified-acquirer retreatCAR WASH · ZIPS Car Wash emerged from Chapter 11 (Apr 2025) · $279M debt reduction; appeals through 2026CAR WASH · Express tunnel format >50% of NA market share (Mordor Intelligence 2026)CAR WASH · ICA Q1 CAR WASH Pulse — saturation, price sensitivity, slowing membership growthCAR WASH · Industry size $18.7B US (IBISWorld 2026) · 5.4% CAGR 2025–2026CAR WASH · Cohort retention 72%–91% across sample · 30–50% higher promotional-rate churnREGULATORY · EPA Proposed 2026 MSGP · PFAS quarterly monitoring + exceedance investigation requirementREGULATORY · California Title 22 reclaim retrofit deadline Jan 1 2027 · 50% reclaim threshold for existing sitesJAPAN · Cross-border discount ~30–40% · 2.5×–4.0× EBITDA band reflects no unlimited-membership recurring layerMETHODOLOGY · Acquidex v1.0 · Sample window 2025-04 → 2026-03 · Trailing 12 months · n=82 SMB transactions
Scored Listing·Car Wash·Updated 2026-05-02
Lower bandComposite

Self-serve and in-bay automatic, no tag system, lease under 8 years

§ 01 · Observed

What was documented in diligence.

No card reader or tag system — revenue from seller-prepared coin vault estimates only. Bank deposits could not be reconciled to reported car count. In-bay automatic unit 12 years old with documented blower motor failure in the prior 12 months. Self-serve bays generating below-benchmark utility cost ratios due to underutilization, not efficiency. Lease 7 years remaining with no option extending past 7 years — below the SBA cliff for a 10-year term. Phase I required and not yet completed at LOI stage.

§ 02 · Outcome

What happened.

Buyer submitted LOI at 4.2× SDE. SBA lender declined to underwrite due to unverifiable revenue and lease shortfall. Deal terminated at underwriting.

§ 03 · Structural Pattern

How this deal fits the four-pillar framework.

Lower-band conditions on all four pillars: unverifiable earnings, equipment past economic life, unfundable lease, and no membership-based transferable value. Multiple paid was mid-band — the structural condition envelope clearly warranted below 3.0×. Mismatch between asking price and structural score is the defining pattern in car-wash financing failures.

This is an anonymized composite drawn from observable structural patterns in the sample window. It is not a specific deal. The structural pattern, band placement, and outcome reflect commonly observed combinations; a future consented case study will replace this entry.

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Methodology · Acquidex v1.0, §3.4 (Earnings Quality), §3.3 (Transferability), §5.1 (Add-Back Stripping per SBA SOP 50 10 8). Methodology paper forthcoming Q3 2026.

Sources · BizBuySell closed-deal data, IBBA Market Pulse Q3–4 2025 and Q1 2026, Pratt's Stats SMB transaction database, Acquidex direct deal observations.

Author · Avery Hastings, CPA. Tokyo-based; SMB and lower-middle-market acquisitions in the US and Japan.

Self-serve and in-bay automatic, no tag system, lease under 8 years — Car Wash Deal Teardown | Acquidex | Acquidex