Seasonal pool service route, northern climate, 5.8% monthly attrition, owner-only technician
§ 01 · Observed
What was documented in diligence.
Geographic market: northern climate with pool season May–October (6 months). Revenue: $280,000 in-season with $0 off-season. DSCR stress test on annual basis showed below 1.0× coverage in Q4–Q1 without a seasonal line. Monthly attrition 5.8% — requiring full route replacement roughly every 18 months at current churn rate. Owner services all 74 accounts personally; zero employees. Chemical COGS presented at 2024 locked contract pricing — supplier confirmed no renewal at those rates. Written agreements: none. Customer notification risk at close is high given informal arrangements.
§ 02 · Outcome
What happened.
Buyer submitted LOI at 3.1× stated SDE. After seasonal DSCR stress, attrition normalization, chemical cost restatement, and owner-labor replacement, adjusted SDE declined 58%. Financing declined — no lender could underwrite DSCR at the requested purchase price.
§ 03 · Structural Pattern
How this deal fits the four-pillar framework.
Lower-band conditions on all four pillars: seasonal revenue with no off-season cash flow, attrition double the top-of-band threshold, owner-only route labor, and chemical cost at below-market locked pricing. Sun Belt valuation applied to a seasonal northern-climate route is the defining lower-band pattern in this vertical.
This is an anonymized composite drawn from observable structural patterns in the sample window. It is not a specific deal. The structural pattern, band placement, and outcome reflect commonly observed combinations; a future consented case study will replace this entry.
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