Acquidex · Industry Atlas · Tokyo · New York
Roofing Acquisitions · Q2 2026 · Issue 01
AQX-IR-RFG-2026Q2
2026 Multiples Band, Structural Conditions, and the Underwriting Lens
US small-business roofing contractor acquisitions traded in a 1.8×–3.5× SDE band over the trailing twelve months — the lowest SDE band in the home services segment. Storm-year normalization, workmanship warranty tail liability, and manufacturer status transferability are the structural conditions determining band placement in Q2 2026.
BY AVERY HASTINGS · CPA · FOUNDER, ACQUIDEX
Sample 2025-05 → 2026-04·n=—·Quarterly·Published 2026-05-02·Next 2026-08-15·Acquidex v1.0 §3.4
PILLAR 01
Earnings Quality
67%
↑ ↑ vs Q1of deals used a storm-event trailing year as the SDE baseline without normalization. Steady-state SDE is typically 40–60% of a storm-year SDE.
PILLAR 02
Pricing
1.8×–3.5×
→ → Band heldLowest SDE band in the home services segment. Re-roofing and maintenance revenue share above 50% is the primary top-of-band condition.
PILLAR 03
Fundability
#1
↑ ↑ vs Q1SBA fall-through cause: DSCR failure after storm-year normalization. Lenders cannot underwrite peak-storm revenue as steady-state.
PILLAR 04
Transferability
38%
↑ ↑ vs Q1of deals had unpriced workmanship warranty tail liability. 10-year warranty on a 3-year-old install book is a quantifiable post-close exposure.
Executive summary
Four findings shaping Q2 2026 roofing deal flow.
Principal finding
A storm-event trailing year was used as the SDE baseline without normalization in 67% of deals reviewed. Storm-year SDE is not steady-state SDE. A roofing business that generated $420K SDE during a hail-active year may have a normalized steady-state SDE of $180K–$250K. Applying a 2.5× multiple to storm-year SDE creates a purchase price that cannot be supported by steady-state cash flow. SBA lenders now require storm normalization as a standard step, not an optional adjustment.
Further findings
- 02
Finding 02
Unpriced workmanship warranty tail liability appeared in 38% of deals. A roofing contractor with a 10-year workmanship warranty on $8M of installed work over the trailing 3 years has a contingent liability that is real, quantifiable, and unpriced in most deal structures. Typical warranty claim rates for residential re-roofing run 1.5–3% of installed value, implying $120K–$240K in forward warranty exposure on this example book. No reserve, no disclosure, no price adjustment in the majority of deals observed.
- 03
Finding 03
Insurance supplement revenue was at peak carrier-approval levels in the trailing period in 41% of deals. As with restoration, roofing supplement revenue is a function of estimator relationship with carrier adjusters and current carrier posture toward supplementing. Carrier appetite for supplement approval compresses after high-volume storm events as claim handling volume overwhelms adjuster capacity. Normalizing supplement to a 3-year average reduced presented SDE by 10–20% in these deals.
- 04
Finding 04
GAF Master Elite, Owens Corning Platinum Preferred, and CertainTeed SELECT ShingleMaster status was held in the owner's personal name or was at risk of lapsing at change of ownership in 29% of deals. Manufacturer preferred contractor programs have specific conditions at change of ownership — in most cases, the manufacturer must approve the transfer, and if the new owner does not meet the installation volume or training requirements, the status lapses. Status loss eliminates the extended warranty marketing advantage and in some cases the extended material warranty offered to homeowners.
The Acquidex Read
Q2 2026 · AQX Evaluation
AQX Evaluation Layer · Section 07 · Bands & Structural Conditions
The Q2 2026 numbers, with the conditions that move them.
| Metric | Band | Structural condition |
|---|---|---|
| SDE multiple paid | 1.8× – 3.5×1 | Lowest band in home services; upper placement requires re-roofing/maintenance above 50% and clean EMR |
| Re-roofing/maintenance vs. storm revenue % | 30% – 65% steady-state | Above 50% steady-state revenue is primary condition for upper-band placement; storm years inflate this metric |
| Warranty reserve % of trailing revenue | 1% – 3% | Quantify unpriced warranty tail on all installed work within workmanship warranty window; rarely disclosed |
| Insurance supplement % of revenue | 10% – 30% | Normalize to 3-year average; storm-year supplement at peak is not forward-durable |
| Manufacturer status | GAF, Owens Corning, CertainTeed elite tiers | Verify transfer conditions at change of ownership; volume and training requirements must be met by new owner |
| Crew EMR (Experience Modification Rate) | 0.75 – 1.15 | Above 1.0 inflates workers comp premium and restricts commercial bid eligibility; verify with carrier loss run |
| Sources · BizBuySell closed-deal data, IBBA Market Pulse Q3–Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 surveys, Pratt's Stats SMB transaction database, Acquidex direct deal observations (buyer, lender, broker engagements during sample window) | ||
AQX Evaluation Layer · Section 08 · Four-Pillar Underwriting Lens
What moves a deal from the middle of the band to the edges.
The four-pillar lens — Earnings Quality, Pricing, Fundability, Transferability — surfaces the structural conditions most frequently observed in roofing contractor acquisitions. Each is described in operational terms in the Underwriting Playbook.
| Pillar | ↑ Top-of-band condition | ↓ Bottom-of-band condition |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Quality | Storm year normalized to steady-state via 3-year average; supplement at 3-year average; warranty reserve quantified and disclosed | Storm-year SDE as baseline without normalization; supplement at peak; warranty tail unpriced and undisclosed |
| Pricing | Re-roofing/maintenance above 50% of steady-state revenue; manufacturer status in entity name; EMR below 1.0 | Storm-insurance dominant revenue; manufacturer status at risk of lapse; EMR above 1.0 compressing worker comp cost |
| Fundability | DSCR holds on normalized steady-state SDE; EMR below 1.0; warranty reserve quantified outside multiple | DSCR fails on normalized SDE; storm-year SDE used as DSCR basis; EMR above 1.0 inflating operating cost model |
| Transferability | Manufacturer status transferable with entity continuity; crew EMR clean; subcontractor relationships in entity name | Manufacturer status personal or volume-dependent; warranty tail unquantified; crew composition changes post-close |
AQX Evaluation Layer · Section 09 · Cross-Border Lens · US / Japan
Cross-Border Lens · US / Japan
Japanese roofing (屋根工事業) is typically performed by specialist craftsmen with deep expertise in traditional materials (瓦 clay tile, 金属屋根 metal roofing) and is rarely structured as an independent SMB acquisition at the scale tracked here. The US insurance-driven storm-response model does not apply in Japan, where typhoon damage claims are handled through different channels. Japanese roofing multiples where data exists are 1.5×–2.5× EBITDA, reflecting smaller average deal size and a craftsman-trade model. Cross-border comparison is not available at current sample size.
Byline · Provenance
Avery Hastings, CPA · Founder, Acquidex
SMB acquisitions in the US and Japan. Methodology development and research direction. Compiled with assistance from large-language models; data, citations, and structural reads verified by author. External pressure-test reviewers will be named at the publication of the Acquidex v1.0 methodology paper.
Methodology · Acquidex v1.0
§3.4 (Earnings Quality), §3.3 (Transferability), §5.1 (Add-Back Stripping per SBA SOP 50 10 8)
Sample window
Sources
SDE definition
Band construction
Limitations
This report is published by Acquidex for informational purposes and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. Acquidex is not a registered investment adviser. Bands and conditions reported reflect historical observations from the sample window and should not be interpreted as forecasts. Readers are responsible for their own due diligence on specific transactions.