Acquidex · Industry Atlas · Tokyo · New York
Landscaping Acquisitions · Q2 2026 · Issue 01
AQX-IR-LSC-2026Q2
2026 Multiples Band, Structural Conditions, and the Underwriting Lens
US small-business landscaping acquisitions traded in a 2.0×–3.5× SDE band over the trailing twelve months. Installation/maintenance revenue co-mingling, H-2B visa dependency, and seasonal DSCR modeling are the structural conditions determining band placement in Q2 2026.
BY AVERY HASTINGS · CPA · FOUNDER, ACQUIDEX
Sample 2025-05 → 2026-04·n=—·Quarterly·Published 2026-05-02·Next 2026-08-15·Acquidex v1.0 §3.4
PILLAR 01
Earnings Quality
63%
↑ ↑ vs Q1of deals co-mingled installation/enhancement revenue with recurring maintenance. Install revenue is episodic; maintenance is the recurring foundation.
PILLAR 02
Pricing
2.0×–3.5×
→ → Band heldSDE band stable. Peak installation year used as baseline is the most common pricing failure in Q2 2026.
PILLAR 03
Fundability
Q4–Q1
→ → Same as Q1Seasonal DSCR failure window for northern-climate operations. Lenders require monthly DSCR modeling — annual average masks the trough.
PILLAR 04
Transferability
29%
↑ ↑ vs Q1of deals had H-2B visa dependency with no documented renewal pipeline. Visa program continuity is a post-close operational cliff.
Executive summary
Four findings shaping Q2 2026 landscaping deal flow.
Principal finding
Installation and enhancement revenue was co-mingled with recurring maintenance revenue in 63% of deals reviewed. Installation revenue is episodic and tied to construction activity, housing starts, and owner relationships that do not transfer. Maintenance contract revenue is the fundable, recurring foundation — separating the two is the first step in any lender-grade SDE analysis.
Further findings
- 02
Finding 02
H-2B visa dependency appeared in 29% of deals with no documented renewal pipeline, seasonal slot application history, or backup staffing plan. The H-2B cap lottery creates genuine operational discontinuity risk — businesses that failed to receive H-2B allocations in prior seasons faced documented revenue shortfalls of 20–35%. This is a post-close operational cliff that must be quantified before pricing.
- 03
Finding 03
Seasonal DSCR trough failure for northern-climate operations remains a structural financing challenge. Annual DSCR averages mask Q4–Q1 cash flow troughs where debt service coverage can drop below 0.80× for 3–5 consecutive months. SBA lenders are increasingly requiring monthly DSCR modeling, not annual averages, for landscaping businesses north of the 35th parallel.
- 04
Finding 04
Equipment average age exceeded 8 years in 34% of deals, with deferred replacement capex not reflected in the headline multiple. Mowers, trailers, and trucks at the end of their useful life create an immediate post-close capex demand that erodes the effective multiple paid. Buyers using an SDE multiple without a separate equipment reserve calculation are overpaying structurally.
The Acquidex Read
Q2 2026 · AQX Evaluation
AQX Evaluation Layer · Section 07 · Bands & Structural Conditions
The Q2 2026 numbers, with the conditions that move them.
| Metric | Band | Structural condition |
|---|---|---|
| SDE multiple paid | 2.0× – 3.5×1 | Upper band requires 60%+ maintenance contract revenue; lower band common when installation dominates or H-2B unresolved |
| Maintenance contract % of revenue | 40% – 75% | Below 40% signals installation-weighted book; above 60% supports upper-band placement |
| Equipment average age | 3 – 8 years | Above 8 years requires capitalized replacement reserve; trailers and mowers at end-of-life compress the effective multiple |
| H-2B workers % of labor force | 0% – 45% | Above 20% requires documented renewal pipeline, prior slot history, and backup domestic staffing plan |
| Seasonal revenue trough month | Dec – Feb (northern) | Northern-climate operations require monthly DSCR modeling; annual average DSCR masks 3–5 month trough periods |
| Crew retention rate (year-over-year) | 65% – 88% | Below 70% signals competitive labor market pressure or poor management culture; directly impacts service quality at renewal |
| Sources · BizBuySell closed-deal data, IBBA Market Pulse Q3–Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 surveys, Pratt's Stats SMB transaction database, Acquidex direct deal observations (buyer, lender, broker engagements during sample window) | ||
AQX Evaluation Layer · Section 08 · Four-Pillar Underwriting Lens
What moves a deal from the middle of the band to the edges.
The four-pillar lens — Earnings Quality, Pricing, Fundability, Transferability — surfaces the structural conditions most frequently observed in landscaping business acquisitions. Each is described in operational terms in the Underwriting Playbook.
| Pillar | ↑ Top-of-band condition | ↓ Bottom-of-band condition |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Quality | Maintenance contracts separated from installation; recurring revenue verified via signed contracts; H-2B history documented | Installation and maintenance co-mingled; peak installation year used as baseline; H-2B dependency undisclosed |
| Pricing | Maintenance above 60% of revenue; equipment current; labor force documented and stable | Installation-dominant revenue; peak year SDE as baseline; aged equipment with deferred capex not in multiple |
| Fundability | Monthly DSCR holds through seasonal trough; SBA lease/equipment terms aligned; H-2B risk quantified | Seasonal DSCR trough below 1.0× for 3+ months; H-2B dependency with no backup plan; annual DSCR masks trough |
| Transferability | Signed maintenance contracts transferable; crew retained with non-owner incentives; H-2B allocation history documented | Maintenance relationships personal to owner; H-2B dependency with no documented renewal pipeline; crew tied to owner |
AQX Evaluation Layer · Section 09 · Cross-Border Lens · US / Japan
Cross-Border Lens · US / Japan
Japanese landscaping (造園業) is a fragmented, craft-oriented sector dominated by small artisan firms focused on traditional Japanese garden design and maintenance. Commercial landscape maintenance at scale is less developed than in the US. Transaction data is limited at the SMB level tracked here. Where comparable Japanese data exists, multiples range from 1.5×–2.5× EBITDA, reflecting smaller average deal size and limited recurring contract structures. Cross-border comparison is not meaningful at current sample size for this vertical.
Byline · Provenance
Avery Hastings, CPA · Founder, Acquidex
SMB acquisitions in the US and Japan. Methodology development and research direction. Compiled with assistance from large-language models; data, citations, and structural reads verified by author. External pressure-test reviewers will be named at the publication of the Acquidex v1.0 methodology paper.
Methodology · Acquidex v1.0
§3.4 (Earnings Quality), §3.3 (Transferability), §5.1 (Add-Back Stripping per SBA SOP 50 10 8)
Sample window
Sources
SDE definition
Band construction
Limitations
This report is published by Acquidex for informational purposes and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. Acquidex is not a registered investment adviser. Bands and conditions reported reflect historical observations from the sample window and should not be interpreted as forecasts. Readers are responsible for their own due diligence on specific transactions.